Oliver Wyman har udsendt rapporten Impact of the Financial Transaction Tax on FX Markets, hvor de har regnet sig frem til den ikke overraskende konklusion at et marked så likvidt som valuta vil blive hårdt ramt af transaktionsskatten.
Skatten vil ramme almindelige mennesker, da de spekulative handler naturligvis blot flytter derhen, hvor der ikke sker beskatning.
Our research suggests that the implementation of the proposed financial transaction tax will:
• Directly increase transaction cost for all transactions by 3-7x and by up to 18x for the most liquid part of the market (FX swaps with maturity less than 1 week account for over 50% of the tax eligible FX cash and derivatives market)
• Predominantly hit the real economy (pension funds, asset managers, insurance companies and corporates) as both direct and indirect costs will largely be passed on to the end users; these end users will be the least able to move transactions to jurisdictions not subject to the tax
• Have limited impact on speculative trading as this activity will most likely relocate outside the EU tax jurisdiction
• Inefficiently tax the economy, as raising €1 of tax will likely cost the economy >€1 given the indirect costs associated with reduced volume and more fragmented liquidity
Værst ser det ud for swaps:
An example of the most liquid swap product is the EUR/USD 1 week swap with a notional of €25,000,000. The current cost to transact to the end user is €279; the additional taxation of this transaction at 0.01% is €2,500 to the dealer as well as an additional €2,500 to a Financial Institution (FI) counterparty or €0 to an exempt counterparty (e.g. corporates) resulting in a total cost of €2,779-€5,279 or an increase of ~10-18x (see Table 1). Swaps of this nature with a maturity less than 1 week, account for over 50% of the cash and derivative markets and therefore will see a significant increase in transaction costs
Resten af rapportens executive summary anbefales også.
Tak for at vi i Danmark kan blive fri for så dumt implementeret beskatning.